A month of measured presence in two Drøbak zones, joined to models that cover the rest of the municipality. Every figure on this page is tagged with where it came from.
Mobile-network presence is counted inside two drawn zones in Drøbak, covering 5.2 km² of a 115 km² municipality. Everything outside them on this page is modelled, and says so.
MEASUREDPresence and nationality are counted. MODELLEDTrips, modes, road flows and catchments are modelled. OPEN DATAPopulation, roads and roadside counts are public data.
Visits per day across both zones. Presence never falls below 7,423 people and 6,113 of those live there, so the gap is visitors staying the night.
MEASUREDThe town holds about 1,310 more people overnight than live in it.
Visitors present by hour, with residents subtracted, and the weekday–weekend split. Arrivals build from mid-morning and hold into the early evening.
MEASUREDBoth series are counted, not modelled. The weekend lift is 13%.
SIM nationality inside the two zones. Norwegian SIMs dominate all month; the foreign share is small but steady rather than spiking on any one weekend.
Average concurrent presence by SIM country, Norwegian SIMs excluded. Every count on this page, including these, is grossed up from one operator's devices to an all-network estimate. That factor is measured for the domestic market, so the foreign figures carry more uncertainty than the Norwegian ones.
Nationality is the only visitor attribute in the measurement. It says nothing about why someone came, how they travelled or what they spent. Nothing on this page attributes travel behaviour to a nationality, because no source here supports it.
The travel behaviour further down is modelled from the Norwegian national travel survey and describes residents on an ordinary weekday, not the July visitors counted here.
MEASUREDCounted. 23 countries seen across the month.
Modelled trips are routed over the real road network, then scaled so they match what Statens vegvesen actually counted at the roadside in July. What comes out is one corrected set of flows rather than a model sitting next to a measurement.
| Counter | counted | modelled | error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frogntunnelen | 18,288 | 16,704 | -9% |
| Oslofjordtunnelen | 14,664 | 17,418 | +19% |
| Ullerudsletta | 13,284 | 12,114 | -9% |
MODELLEDOPEN DATATrips are modelled; the network and the counts are public data. The scale factor is fitted on the three counters inside Frogn that sit on the roads into town. The counters further out are on motorways carrying long-distance trips that start outside the modelled area, so the model under-reads them and they are excluded.
Mode share behind the assignment, for an ordinary weekday in Frogn.
MODELLEDModelled from the Norwegian national travel survey, so it describes how residents travel on a normal weekday. It is not a July figure and it is not broken down by nationality.
MEASUREDMODELLEDOn Fv152, the road into Drøbak, the counter recorded 13,284 vehicles a day; the calibrated model puts 12,114 on the same link (-9%).
Walk distance from every populated 250 m cell to the nearest grocery, school, kindergarten, pharmacy, GP, bus stop and playground, over the real footpath network. Each cell carries its residents, so these are shares of people rather than shares of map.
at least one within a 15 minute walk two or more, so there is a choice
The weakest service is the pharmacy. Half of Frogn's residents are more than 19 minutes walk from one, and 10,651 people are beyond 15 minutes. Those trips are made by car, which is what turns an access question into a traffic and parking question.
MODELLEDOPEN DATAFootpaths and service locations are OpenStreetMap. Residents are the SSB 250 m grid. Walking speed 4.8 km/h.
| From Drøbak to | min by car | km |
|---|---|---|
| Ås | 14 | 12 |
| Vestby | 17 | 12 |
| Ski | 22 | 18 |
| Nesoddtangen | 28 | 25 |
| Oslo | 36 | 36 |
MODELLEDRouted on the real network. Oslo is 36 minutes, which is why Frogn keeps a commuting relationship with the city rather than only with its neighbours.
Every 250 m population cell splits its grocery spend across nearby stores by store size and real drive time. That gives each store a catchment without needing a single loyalty card or till receipt.
| Store | m² | Modelled annual capture | MNOK | trips/wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meny Drøbak City | 1,800 | 154 | 9,023 | |
| Rema 1000 Drøbak | 1,100 | 120 | 7,000 | |
| Kiwi Ullerudsletta | 900 | 102 | 5,964 | |
| Rema 1000 Dyrløkkeveien | 1,100 | 81 | 4,744 | |
| Extra Drøbak | 1,400 | 65 | 3,820 | |
| Matkroken Drøbak | 350 | 52 | 3,051 | |
| Kiwi Heer | 900 | 52 | 3,030 | |
| Spar-Esset | 800 | 25 | 1,461 | |
| 7-Eleven Frogn | 150 | 15 | 890 | |
| Nærbutikken Hallangen | 250 | 6 | 369 |
MODELLEDOPEN DATAStore locations are OSM; population is the SSB 250 m grid; drive times are routed. Floor areas are format averages, not measured.
MODELLEDFrogn's ten stores capture about 672 MNOK a year. Meny Drøbak City alone accounts for 154 MNOK of it.
Measured peak visitors, a modelled car share and mapped parking supply give the shortfall and the hours it bites.
MEASUREDHighest measured presence above the residential floor.
MODELLEDAt a 56% car share and 1.8 people per car.
OPEN DATAMapped parking inside the two zones; 2,511 across the wider town.
MEASUREDMODELLEDOPEN DATAAt the peak there are about 1,249 visitor cars against 684 spaces in the zones. The town as a whole has enough; the centre does not. 2,039 people already live within a 10-minute walk.
Rather than testing one site someone picked, every point on an 800 m grid across populated Frogn was scored by running the whole model again with a store on it. The measure is how much extra spend stays in Frogn once the existing stores' losses are netted off.
| Store | now | after | change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nærbutikken Hallangen | 6 | 4 | -30.9% |
| Spar-Esset | 25 | 23 | -7.5% |
| Kiwi Heer | 52 | 51 | -1.8% |
| Extra Drøbak | 65 | 65 | -0.6% |
| 7-Eleven Frogn | 15 | 15 | -0.5% |
| Rema 1000 Dyrløkkeveien | 81 | 81 | -0.4% |
| Meny Drøbak City | 154 | 154 | -0.3% |
MODELLEDSame Huff model, one store added. Losses are modelled diversion, not observed trade.
MODELLEDThe best site keeps about 29 MNOK a year of spend inside Frogn that currently leaves it. It also adds 2,059 car and foot trips a week to the local network, which is where chapter 05 comes back in.